According to @BullTheoryio, a US government shutdown halts releases of jobs reports, CPI, PPI, and payrolls, forcing markets to trade on known information rather than fresh data, which the account frames as supportive for crypto. According to @BullTheoryio, the current backdrop is a cooling labor market and controlled inflation, conditions that historically favor risk assets like BTC and altcoins. According to @BullTheoryio, 400,000 to 500,000 federal workers would be furloughed without pay during a shutdown, dampening spending and softening inflation, which could increase the odds of policy easing. According to @BullTheoryio, rate cut odds are essentially 100 percent for October and above 85 percent for December, with Clean PCE cited at 2.7 percent as evidence of contained inflation. According to @BullTheoryio, markets typically dislike uncertainty during a shutdown but risk assets often rally once it ends, and BTC is already showing strength. According to @BullTheoryio, the next 1 to 2 months could see upside in BTC and altcoins as liquidity returns and inflation stays in check, with delayed data plus potential easing forming a bullish setup.

According to @rovercrc, current market odds show a 93.4% probability of a 25 bps rate cut and a 6.6% probability of a 50 bps cut, source: @rovercrc. @rovercrc states that markets will explode, signaling traders to prepare for heightened volatility across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, source: @rovercrc. For short-term positioning, this skew in expectations supports volatility-focused setups around the decision window, source: @rovercrc.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the market currently prices only a 13% probability of a 50 bps rate cut next week and an 89% probability of a cumulative 75 bps of cuts by year-end, indicating expectations are skewed toward later-year easing rather than an immediate large cut for traders monitoring crypto market sensitivity to policy shifts (source: André Dragosch on X, Sep 10, 2025).

According to @rovercrc, Polymarket traders are pricing a 70% probability of a September US Federal Reserve rate cut, indicating strong market expectations for policy easing. Source: @rovercrc. Traders may monitor this 70% odds level as a macro input when sizing BTC and ETH exposure into September policy risk. Source: @rovercrc.